Welcome back to Stacking Equity, where we break down the major financial and tech news with more buzz than Sydney Sweeney's jeans (or 'genes' – hard to say) and with less awkwardness than the ESPY crowd after a Shane Gillis bit.

Manipulated Metrics: Why You Should Never Trust a Statistic at Face Value

It's official: Trump just fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner for putting out a jobs report that didn't fit his narrative. Regardless of where you land on the political spectrum or your Trump fatigue level, this moment is the perfect launchpad for a deeper, more relevant conversation for every investor, employee, and even new dog parent: In a world addicted to "facts," are we any better at sniffing out the real thing?

The one upside to living through a decade of "fake news" is that most of us have finally decided not to blindly trust headlines. But toss out a shiny statistic—something that sounds official and has just enough decimals to feel true—and suddenly our skepticism goes missing like LeBron James in the 2011 NBA Finals.

Headline vs. Head Game: Why Stats are the Ultimate PR Tool

Now, I first have to admit I am a self-proclaimed data nerd. I may have a normal distribution curve tattoo, and my wife unironically got me this hat for Christmas a few years back.

I could go on for days on this topic, but for the sake of understanding, I'll keep things high-level.

Behind every big stat, there's usually a story someone wants told. Need to look successful? Pick a time window that flatters. Want to sway the public? Emphasize your confirmation bias and seek out only new information to support your existing views. Need a set result? Frame your data collection tactics in a way that skews the polling your way. There's always creative room for a bit of data mining in all facets of life - investing, politics, health, you name it. Here are a few examples of how the magic trick works:

• Time Series Bias: If your narrative needs a boost, merely start and end your chart where it benefits you most.
• Selective Sampling: Want to make a point? Exclude outliers, cherry-pick the cohort, or just "accidentally" drop some inconvenient data points.
• Spurious Correlation: Sometimes two things seem connected by data but aren't actually related, like the number of pool drownings correlates to the number of Nic Cage films that came out in the given year. They occur together but don't cause each other. Using less ridiculous examples can help build incorrect narratives.

And if manipulating data on our own wasn't tricky enough, we've got industry standards and regulations lending a helping hand - making some claims seem more legit than they actually are. For example, after getting a new puppy, I learned from my vet that pet food can legally be labeled as "with beef" or "with chicken" as long as it contains just 3% of that protein. You'd expect standards to be stricter, but knowing this makes you question marketing claims a bit more, and that's true for most industries.

Financial Favorites: CPI, Unemployment, and the Mirage of Precision

Now that you have a bit of an understanding of data manipulation, let's circle back to recent government events. One area ripe for spin comes in the form of economic and labor stats. If you've ever quoted CPI or unemployment rates without a sigh, congrats—you've fallen for some of the most commonly misunderstood metrics in the game. Here's a quick rundown of why:

• CPI (Consumer Price Index): Often used as the headline measure of inflation, CPI is based on a shifting basket of goods and services. The reported inflation might not reflect what you're feeling in your wallet - especially since "core" CPI (which leaves out volatile food and energy) grabs most headlines.
• Unemployment Rate: The official rate only tracks people actively looking for work. Lost hope and dropped out of the job search? You're invisible in this number - which can make the labor market appear much stronger than it really is.
• Trade and Imports: Import and export figures sound precise, but are notoriously hard to pin down. Minor delays or misreports can make major headlines and accidentally fuel (or kill) entire policy arguments.

These metrics get cited with all the certainty of gospel, but it pays to remember that their "precision" is a bit of a mirage. When you only look at the headline number, you're bound to miss the real story - because sometimes, the stats are purposely complicated to add wiggle room and to keep economists employed.

Beyond the Stat Sheet: How to be a Smart Consumer of Numbers

You don't need a PhD to be skeptical about statistics - just be curious. When you see a number, don't take it at face value. Ask the right questions to uncover the real story. Here's what to keep in mind:

• Take every stat in context: Ask yourself, "What's missing here? Who stands to benefit if this number looks high or low?"
• Watch for changed definitions: If "core" numbers suddenly get more press, dig into whether that helps clarity or simply distracts from a less flattering narrative.
• Trust the mosaic, not the single tile: One number rarely tells the whole story. It's the combination of data points that reveals the bigger picture.

These principles apply when reading economic reports, financial statements, or even the latest marketing pitch. The more questions you ask, the harder it is to get fooled - and the smarter your decisions become.

The Reality: There's No Golden Number, Only Good Questions

Too many investors, voters, and MLB fans (yes, I'm talking about you, you sabermetric weirdos) are still letting random stats steer the ship. The only protection is curiosity and asking a follow-up question when it will materially impact our opinion - why this number, why now, and what would I see if I dug a little deeper?

So, as you scroll through next month's headlines - jobs reports, inflation stats, or even our investment performance reports - remember: the truth rarely fits in a sound bite. And neither should your decisions.

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Rate Wars: Trump vs. Powell - Strap on your Hardhats (Literally)

The rate debate lit up again this month as the Federal Reserve kept rates steady. Donnie Discount, never one to let a grudge go cold, called for the Fed board to strip Jerome Powell of his power if he won't deliver the rate cut Trump wants. For his part, Powell stood firm, holding the target rate at 4.25–4.5% even as dissident Fed officials tried to push for a cut. It has led to questions of whether the central bank chair is fighting inflation or a political grudge.

Both camps are scrambling for headlines, but here's the money question for everyone not on 'X' 24/7: Does this stalemate change anything for your wallet, company, or mortgage rate?

The Importance: Let's cut through the noise - with a lot of uncertainty in the economic data due to the tariffs' impacts, Powell wants to hold high for a bit longer. At the same time, he has to know that his critics will start the chripping 'if not now, then when'. I think it's fair to start questioning the timing, but we can all agree on a 3.0% cut that the President prefers as a sure-fire path to inflation.

For now, Powell and the Fed's steady hand mean we're not likely to see those easy-money days come rushing back soon. Mortgage rates will probably hold in the elevated 6–7% range, so homebuyers and refinancers still get to play Rate Limbo. Asset prices will likely have to stand on their own two feet, without the endless tailwind of Fed-fueled liquidity.

It's not all drama, though: a divided Fed and rate hold can mean fewer shockwaves for portfolios than a sudden about-face.

Also, this political theater is a reminder not to anchor your long-term financial strategy to short-term campaign sound bites. If there's one thing certain in this rate saga, it's that central banks will outlast any president's attention span—or Twitter fingers.

So keep your senses sharp, watch for real economic shifts, and enjoy the memes (seriously, the hardhat spat was an all-timer). The real financial moves still happen far from the spotlight, long after the cameras cut away.

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Figma’s IPO: “Risk-On”

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This summer's market FOMO hit a new high-water mark as Figma, everyone's favorite collaborative design unicorn, went public in the splashiest U.S. listing since the pre–rate-hike days. The opening was a Wall Street fever dream: priced at $33 per share, Figma soared over 150% in a single afternoon and peaked at nearly $143, vaulting its market cap to almost $70 billion—triple what Adobe once offered for it. Dylan Field and the early Figma employees better start penning their thank-you notes to former FTC chair Lina Khan.

But after the confetti cleared, things got real. The stock snapped back to earth, losing over 25% in just a few sessions (still triple the IPO price, but proving the early days of an IPO are volatile). Why the drama? Figma's revenue is still booming—up 46% year-over-year, with 13 million users - but it also came to market at a wild 90x price/sales ratio. That's Michael Jordan–level expectations in a space that is rarely kind to rookies, and higher than most SaaS legends ever saw.

The Importance: Figma's IPO is bigger than just one ticker—it's become the living bullhorn for the 2025 IPO cycle. Yes, it's a real business with A-list customers (95% of the Fortune 500), and a product that basically defined a new SaaS niche. But beneath the blockbuster debut are signals we've seen before: a "risk-on" public hungry to buy any name with a growth story, and a frothy pop that says more about pent-up optimism than true fundamental analysis.

Here's your signal for long-term investors: treat these pops with healthy skepticism. Hype is not a moat. Cost discipline, customer retention (Figma is stellar here), and real innovation win over time. The recent wave of crypto-adjacent IPOs? Most won't be putting up these numbers or these headlines. For every Figma, there’s a cautionary tale of hype - just ask anyone still holding that SPAC from last summer.

$29.6B

This summer's rerun of the Trump trade playbook hasn't disappointed. Headlines are split: one side claims new tariffs will punish foreign manufacturers and fill U.S. coffers, the other warns they're just a hidden tax on American families. After hearing endless debate and not much straight talk, let's clear up who gets stuck with the bill.

Takeaway: Tariffs are taxes on imports - meaning U.S. companies pay extra to bring goods in. Despite the political soundbites, there's no magic where these fees appear on China's (or any foreign country's) budget line. The cost directly hits the importers - American businesses.

But what about when we consider any indirect impacts? Well, that leaves us with four other possibilities:

• Theoretically, a foreign company's bottom line may take the hit if reverse tariffs hit just right. In reality, the odds of this are about as likely as one of the seven quarterbacks on the Browns turning into a star - fun to imagine, but don't hold your breath. After all, this is the organization we are talking about.
• Some U.S. companies can (and are currently) twisting arms with overseas suppliers to cut costs and share the pain (something the detractors don't want to mention). But realize this can only be done up to a point. After that, foreign suppliers stop budging.
• Up to this point, American corporations have put aside their capitalistic tendencies for once and absorbed the additional tariff expenses themselves as they sort out the uncertainty of the situation. But let's keep it real – the time corporations sacrifice profit margins "for the team" tends to last about as long as a meme stock rally.
• Finally, and most predictably, prices go up for American consumers. That's when you start paying more for everything from shoes to snacks, though you won't see "tariff" printed on your receipt.

Both political camps love to weaponize stats: "Tariffs funded by foreign countries!" vs. "American families pay all of it!" The answer is, predictably, grayer than an episode of The Honeymooners - but the closer you get to the grocery line/the Amazon cart, the clearer it gets. You. Are. The. Wallet.

So next time someone claims the tariffs are "saving American jobs," check your receipt. Your grocery bill will be higher, and your bags will be lighter. You'll be footing the tab, quietly and without a headline.

-1- Quick Hits

It's the dog days of summer, and hopefully, things are relatively calm and quiet. But if you haven't yet done so, it is a great time to have a mid-year tax review with your tax professional so you are fully prepared as we gear up for the end-of-year planning. The best way to avoid that April surprise next year is to do some proactive work. Get it done!

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We'll call it a wrap for this month.

If the markets keep serving up plot twists, we'll keep bringing the commentary that's one part analysis, one part reality check, and always a dash of fun.

Got feedback, 'dumb' questions, or even your own hot take? Hit reply – I read every note.

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Until next time, keep stackin'.

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